Effects of Land Surface Temperature on the Frequency of Convective Precipitation in the Tokyo Area

Abstract

This study uses statistical evaluation by correlation analysis to examine the effects of thermal enviromnent on the fre- quency of convective precipitation in the Greater Tokyo Area between 12:00 and 18:00 on summer days from 1997 to 2006. To extract the frequency of convective precipitation we used Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System radar data to obtain detailed rainfall distribution maps, and to extract the urban thermal enviromnent we used surface temperature data from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather satellite. Results were a coefficient of determination of 0.01, indicating no clear relation between surface temperature and convective rain frequency in the study area. Examining the convective rain frequency distribution map in conjunction with an elevation map of the area indicates that higher elevation is a better predictor of increased frequency of convective rainfall than is surface tem- perature. Because this indicates that orographic precipitation has a large influence in the study area, we used an eleva- tion map to exclude hilly and mountainous regions, regions bordering flat areas (under the assumption that wind could easily move orographic precipitation to such areas), and regions containing marine areas. Doing so resulted in a coeffi- cient of determination of 0.38, a clear signal that differences in the thermal enviromnent in the Greater Tokyo Area have an effect on the frequency of convective precipitation. We next focused on metropolitan Tokyo, the most developed part of the region and the part experiencing the most frequent occurrences of convective precipitation, and we performed correlation analysis considering parameters related to buildings. Results indicate that orographic precipitation has a strong influence in metropolitan Tokyo as well, so we excluded those areas that were excluded from the Greater Tokyo Area analysis and again performed correlation analysis. However, we found no clear relation of convective precipitation frequency with surface temperature or building parameters. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]