Building and calibration transport demand model in anamorava region

Abstract

The main objective of this research is to develop a model and to calibrate it in order to apply it to transport forecasting for Anamorava region. The synthetic model has been developed, and it is composed of a transport network model and a demand model, which is enabled using PTV Visum software as well as using the following variables as input: number of residents, number of people employed, working places available as well as the volume of vehicles entering and leaving certain locations surrounding the Anamorava region at "peak hour". Required coefficients are used for converting the traffic volumes from 12 hours to 24 hours expressed, such as AADT. As a criterion, for initial verification R2, RMSPE, Percentage Deviation and Regression parameters are used. Then, a calibration of the demand model is conducted using the TFlowFuzzy algorithm by employed GEH test, comparing it with the observed data of traffic volumes accomplished simultaneously at some locations inside and in the vicinity of this region for time intervals of 12 hours on two different days in one week in May 2016. In order to fulfil all the criterions, it has been found out that the final model may be used for transport demand forecasting in the future in this region.