Islamic stock market behavior toward changes in macroeconomic variables

Abstract

This study was conducted to assess the behaviour of the Islamic stock market towards the changes in the economic indicators in Malaysia. The variables involved were the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index (FBMES) which was a proxy to the Islamic Stock Market. The independent variables used were the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Islamic Banking Interbank Rate (IIR), Money Supply (M3) Islamic Unit Trust (IUT) and the Industrial Production Index (IPI).This study utilized the standard Vector Autoregressive (VAR) estimation model with monthly data from January 2007 to December 2017. The findings showed that there was a long-term relationship between Islamic stock market with the Islamic unit trust and the industrial production index. Based on the test results of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the Islamic stock market was not influenced by any of the selected macroeconomic variables. However, the study found that the FBMES variables were significant in shaping the Granger's short-term impact on changes in Islamic interbank rate (IIR) and money supply (M3) variables. As such, this study proved that the Islamic stock market index and the macroeconomic variables could influence one another.