Dynamics of resilience to food insecurity among Enset producing and non-producing households in central Ethiopia: insight from panel data

Abstract

Resilience to food insecurity is vital in Ethiopia, where climate shocks and recurrent droughts threaten rural livelihoods. Enset (Ensete ventricosum), a drought-tolerant crop, is integral to food security in Central Ethiopia, yet its role in household resilience remains understudied. This study compares resilience between Enset-producing and nonproducing households via panel data from 270 households across three survey waves (2018/19, 2021/22, 2023/24). A resilience index measurement and analysis (RIMA) framework was employed to estimate the resilience capacity index (RCI), with key resilience pillars identified through factor analysis. A multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) model links these pillars to food security outcomes, whereas random effects ordered logistic regression identifies resilience determinants. The results revealed that, compared with non-producers, Enset-producing households presented 25% greater resilience, with significant advantages in assets (AST = 3.882), access to basic services (ABS = 243.808), and adaptive capacity (AC = 12.149). Producers also had higher food consumption scores (FCS = 0.864) than non-producers (0.46). Dynamic analysis revealed that 75.3% of the producers recovered from food insecurity by reducing the Coping Strategies Index (rCSI) between year t + 1 and year t + 2, whereas 49.6% of the nonproducers did. The study concludes that Enset cultivation significantly enhances household resilience through improved income diversification, financial stability, and food security. However, dependence on external aid negatively affects long-term resilience. Policy recommendations include promoting Enset cultivation, improving rural infrastructure and access to basic services, supporting income diversification for vulnerable households, and implementing shock-responsive social protection systems to mitigate the impacts of climate and economic shocks.