Evaluation of Land Carrying Capacity of 31 Provinces in China Based on a Natural–Societal-Supply–Demand Framework

Abstract

Land carrying capacity (LCC) refers to the ability of land resources to support human activities, and has become an important tool for research into the man–land relationship. Due to the 31 provinces of China possessing huge differences in resource and social development, it is necessary to understand the key factors and differences in LCC in each province. This paper provided a framework for the Natural–Societal-Supply–Demand of LCC, and analyzed the LCC of the 31 provinces of China via the cross relationship between the four subsystems. In total, 22 indicators were selected, and the weight of the indicators was calculated via the gray correlation coefficient. Through this framework, the LCC is endowed by natural resources and is improved by social development; the comprehensive LCC of the 31 provinces was evaluated using geographic information data and statistical data, and the main causes of overload were analyzed by using the obstacle model. The results show that (1) The natural resources of most provinces in China cannot support the current population; (2) Social development has significantly improved the LCC; and (3) The shortage of natural resources is the key factor in LCC overloading in most provinces. Insufficient food supply, insufficient carbon sequestration, the shortage of construction land, and insufficient water supply are the main causes of overload in China.