Forecasting the Number of Vehicles in Indonesia Using Auto Regressive Integrative Moving Average (ARIMA) Method

Abstract

The number of vehicles in Indonesia increases significantly from year to year. This has an impact on various aspects such as traffic jams, air pollution, traffic accidents etc. The purpose of this study is to obtain the best model for forecast the number of cars and the number of motorcycles in the next 11 years. For the purpose, ARIMA method was used. Using the historical data of the number of cars and the number of motorcycles from 2001 to 2019, the best model for forecasting the number of cars and the number of motorcycles is ARIMA (1,1,0) and ARIMA (2,1,2), respectively. The models have MAPE of 7.01% and 7.24% for cars and motorcycles, respectively.