An enhanced nonparametric streamflow disaggregation model with genetic algorithm

Abstract

Stochastic streamflow generation is generally utilized for planning and management of water resources systems. For this purpose, a number of parametric and nonparametric models have been suggested in literature. Among them, temporal and spatial disaggregation approaches play an important role particularly to make sure that historical variance-covariance properties are preserved at various temporal and spatial scales. In this paper, we review the underlying features of existing nonparametric disaggregation methods, identify some of their pros and cons, and propose a disaggregation algorithm that is capable of surmounting some of the shortcomings of the current models. The proposed models hinge on k-nearest neighbor resampling, the accurate adjusting procedure, and a genetic algorithm. The models have been tested and compared to an existing nonparametric disaggregation approach using data of the Colorado River system. It has been shown that the model is capable of (1) reproducing the season-to-season correlations including the correlation between the last season of the previous year and the first season of the current year, (2) minimizing or avoiding the generation of flow patterns across the year that are literally the same as those of the historical records, and (3) minimizing or avoiding the generation of negative flows. In addition, it is applicable to intermittent river regimes. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.