Correlation between the phase of the moon and occurences of microearthquakes in the Tamba region through point-process modeling

Abstract

We study the correlation between the phase of the moon and the occurrence of microearthquakes in the Tamba region, close to the fault of the 1995 Kobe earthquake. The existence of the correlation during the two-year period following the Kobe earthquake was suggested in a previous study. First, in this study, we investigate the statistical significance of such correlation. Using point-process modeling and AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), we confirm that the existence of the correlation is statistically significant. Second, we investigate the temporal variation of the correlation during the four-year period following the Kobe earthquake. The result of the second analysis indicates that the correlation is strongest just after the Kobe earthquake and that it then becomes weaker year by year. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.