A quantified risk-scoring system including the visceral fat area for peritoneal metastasis of gastric cancer

Abstract

Background: Peritoneal metastases of gastric cancer are usually detected using imaging, However, the results of imaging modalities are not always reliable; therefore, the prediction of prognosis based on these findings is therefore inaccurate. As visceral obesity has been identified as a potential risk factor for cancer, the present study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of visceral fat area (VFA), a representative marker of visceral obesity, for peritoneal metastasis in patients with gastric cancer and to construct a reliable preoperative prediction system for peritoneal metastasis. Patients and methods: We enrolled 859 patients with gastric cancer. The VFA and other objective clinical tumor characteristics were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Independent predictors of peritoneal metastasis were determined using logistic regression analysis; a prediction system was also evaluated using ROC curves. Results: The ROC curves indicated a VFA cutoff value of 91.00 cm2 as predictive of peritoneal metastasis. On logistic regression, visceral obesity (VFA =91.00 cm2) was identified as an independent predictor of peritoneal metastasis, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.659; the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), invasion depth, and vascular invasion were also identified as independent predictors. On integrating these predictors into a single prediction system, peritoneal metastases were more reliably predicted (area under the ROC curve=0.779). Conclusions: Visceral obesity, as defined by the VFA, effectively predicted peritoneal metastases in our cohort. Our scoring system may be a reliable instrument for identifying patients with peritoneal metastasis.