A maximum entropy fixed-point route choice model for route correlation

Abstract

In this paper we present a stochastic route choice model for transit networks that explicitly addresses route correlation due to overlapping alternatives. The model is based on a multi-objective mathematical programming problem, the optimality conditions of which generate an extension to the Multinomial Logit models. The proposed model considers a fixed point problem for treating correlations between routes, which can be solved iteratively. We estimated the new model on the Santiago (Chile) Metro network and compared the results with other route choice models that can be found in the literature. The new model has better explanatory and predictive power that many other alternative models, correctly capturing the correlation factor. Our methodology can be extended to private transport networks.