Navigating Energy Efficiency: A Multifaceted Interpretability of Fuel Oil Consumption Prediction in Cargo Container Vessel Considering the Operational and Environmental Factors

Abstract

In the maritime industry, optimizing vessel fuel oil consumption is crucial for improving energy efficiency and reducing shipping emissions. However, effectively utilizing operational data to advance performance monitoring and optimization remains a challenge. An XGBoost Regressor model was developed using a comprehensive dataset, delivering strong predictive performance (R2 = 0.95, MAE = 10.78 kg/h). This predictive model considers operational (controllable) and environmental (uncontrollable) variables, offering insights into complex FOC factors. To enhance interpretability, SHAP analysis is employed, revealing ‘Average Draught (Aft and Fore)’ as the key controllable factor and emphasizing ‘Relative Wind Speed’ as the dominant uncontrollable factor impacting vessel FOC. This research extends to further analysis of the extremely high FOC point, identifying patterns in the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. These findings provide region-specific insights, guiding energy efficiency improvement, operational strategy refinement, and sea resistance mitigation. In summary, our study introduces a groundbreaking framework leveraging machine learning and SHAP analysis to advance FOC understanding and enhance maritime decision making, contributing significantly to energy efficiency and operational strategies—a substantial contribution to a responsible shipping performance assessment under tightening regulations.