Operational forecast of beach morphodynamics. Reliability and prediction limits

Abstract

The paper presents a nested and coupled modelling suite including meteorological, waves, currents and morphodynamics sub-routines. The sequence has been applied to two distinctive beaches along the Catalan coast in the Spanish Mediterranean. Models and observations from two intensive campaigns have been compared to establish the accuracy and reliability of morphodynamic simulations, with the aim to determine uncertainty intervals and to assess the suitability of using such a modelling tool for reducing storm induced risks in beach management.