Applicability of Framingham risk equations for studying a low-income mexican population

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predicted risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and incident myocardial infarction (MI) using Framingham score equations with the observed rate of MI in Mexican subjects. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Longitudinal study that included 1 667 men and women aged 35 to 64 years without MI at baseline. Incident MI was defined by electrocardiogram or death certificate. The predicted risk of fatal MI, non-fatal MI, and both was calculated using Framingham score equations. Predicted to observed risk ratio of MI was estimated. RESULTS: There were 34 incident MI cases and 24 MI deaths (median follow-up 6.2 years). The score equations overestimated the prediction of incident MI and CHD death (ratio 2.27, 95% CI, 1.19-3.34) and incident MI (ratio 2.36, 95% CI, 1.07-3.65) in men. CONCLUSIONS: The Framingham score overestimated incident MI and CHD death risk in men; however, other studies are needed to confirm our results for recalibrating the score for Mexican subjects.