Changes in enforcement of low-level and felony offenses post-ferguson: An Analysis of Arrests in St. Louis, Missouri

Abstract

As a result of several highly publicized incidents of police killing unarmed Black suspects, many contend that American police are in the midst of a crisis. Police have faced high levels of public scrutiny that some argue has stifled police activities and led to spikes in violent crime. This phenomenon-coined in the aftermath of the police killing of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri-has become widely known as the Ferguson Effect. This study uses seven years of data and time series analysis to assess whether the events in Ferguson were associated with a reduction in arrests for felonies and low-level offenses in the nearby City of St. Louis, Missouri. We find that there was an initial reduction in low-level arrests of Whites and Blacks in the wake of Ferguson. Enforcement of misdemeanors and ordinance violations then increased and returned to expected levels, but only for Blacks. Post-Ferguson, felony arrests initially dropped for Blacks, but not Whites, and then climbed for both groups. This work adds to the burgeoning literature on police responses in the wake of a high-profile shooting.