The “Spiral of Silence” Revisited: A Meta-Analysis on the Relationship Between Perceptions of Opinion Support and Political Opinion Expression

Abstract

The key assumption of spiral of silence theory is that opinion climate perceptions affect political opinion expression. We meta-analyzed the strength of this relationship and clarified the impact of theoretically relevant moderators. Sixty-six studies collectively including more than 27,000 participants were located. We observed a significant positive relationship (r =.10; Zr =.10) between opinion climate and opinion expression. This relationship was not weaker in online as compared with offline opinion expression environments. Also, the relationship did not vary by the number of the targets of opinion expression, the opinion of the targets, the opinion climate characteristics, and the design, measurement, and sample characteristics. The largest silencing effect (r =.34), however, was observed when participants talk to their family, friends, or neighbors about obtrusive issues. Overall, our findings suggest that the relationship between opinion climate perception and political opinion expression is stronger and more robust than previously thought.