A Pre-Monsoon Signal of False Alarms of Indian Monsoon Droughts

Abstract

Current knowledge suggests a drought Indian monsoon (perhaps a severe one) when the El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation each exhibit positive phases (a joint positive phase). For the monsoons, which are exceptions in this regard, we found northeast India often gets excess pre-monsoon rainfall. Further investigation reveals that this excess pre-monsoon rainfall is produced by the interaction of the large-scale circulation associated with the joint phase with the mountains in northeast India. We posit that a warmer troposphere, a consequence of excess rainfall over northeast India, drives a stronger monsoon circulation and enhances monsoon rainfall over central India. Hence, we argue that pre-monsoon rainfall over northeast India can be used for seasonal monsoon rainfall prediction over central India. Most importantly, its predictive value is at its peak when the Pacific Ocean exhibits a joint positive phase and the threat of extreme drought monsoon looms over India.