Rainfall variability and dynamics of cropping pattern in Kashmir Himalayas: a case study of climate change and agriculture

Abstract

Climate change has an adverse impact on the different spheres of life. Among the different human activities, agriculture is most affected by climate change which has been established by various studies at global and regional levels. It imposes serious constraints on the crop production which leads to changes in cropping pattern in general and in mountainous regions of the world in particular. In this regard, the present study aims to analyse the impact of rainfall variability on crop productivity and changes in cropping pattern in the north-western Himalayas. Mann–Kendall and Sen slope analyses were done to detect the changing trends in rainfall, whereas correlation coefficient was used to analyse the influence of rainfall variability on crop yield and the changing cropping pattern. The results indicate that rainfall has shown a decreasing trend from last few decades and has led to changes in the crop yield/production and cropping pattern in the region. Further, it was observed that crops in the region have shown different associations with rainfall, and as a result, area under some crops has increased while under certain other crops it has witnessed a contraction.