Classical Realism and Ukraine: Constructing the Causes

Abstract

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine once again, this time starting a conflict of a scale not seen in Europe since WWII. The classical realism model of international relations provides insight into Russia’s actions, while a social constructivist perspective can further refine that insight. Historically, the initial positive post-Soviet relations between Russia and the former Soviet states gave way to more fraught relations as Russia expected to maintain those states as a border security bulwark. The West failed to integrate Russia into a post-Cold War security structure, while at the same time, Russia took aggressive actions against neighbours such as Chechnya and Georgia, inciting states in the region to look to the West and NATO. Russian actions, properly understood, represent the archetypal realist state attempting to improve security, but they can also be understood in terms of the socially constructed identities of the nation and of Vladimir Putin himself and their quest for “great powerness” (derzhavnost). Likewise, the West’s response represents a realist method to reduce the power of an adversary, but the magnitude and unity of the response also suggest that more is at stake than mere security: the backlash comes from the affront to the European norm against wars of aggression. It is likely that the conflict will last for quite some time, though the chances of nuclear war, while scary, are slim in light of Russian nuclear doctrine and how they employ nuclear rhetoric.