A Comparative Analysis of Data Source’s Impact on Renewable Energy Scenario Assessment—The Example of Ground-Mounted Photovoltaics in Germany

Abstract

The German government aims to convert its energy system to renewable energy by 2045. This requires a comprehensive understanding of land eligibility for renewables, particularly land-intensive ground-mounted photovoltaics (GM-PV). Federal states must set aside at least 2% of their land for renewable energy. This target value was derived using a top-down energy demand approach. Georeferenced land use data can be used to make bottom-up estimates. This study investigates how the choice of data source influences the bottom-up evaluation of land eligibility for GM-PV installations in Germany. This study evaluates the quality of data sources and their applicability for GM-PV scenario assessment by comparing the official data source Basis-DLM as the reference with the open-access data sources OpenStreetMap (OSM), Corine Land Cover (CLC), and Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). The intersection over union (IoU) and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) methods were used to analyse the differences in land use and eligibility due to the quality of the data sources and to compare their accuracy. The study’s results show the crucial role of data source selection in estimating the potential for GM-PV in Germany. The results indicate that open-access data overestimate land eligibility by 4.0% to 4.5% compared to the official Basis-DLM data. Spatial similarities and discrepancies between the OSM, CEMS CLC, and Basis-DLM land uses were identified. The CLC data exhibit higher consistency with Basis-DLM. These findings emphasise the importance of selecting the appropriate data source depending on the purpose and the use of official data sources for accurate and spatially differentiated decision-making and project planning at different scales. Open-access data sources can be applied for initial orientation and large-scale rough assessment as they balance data accuracy and accessibility.