Avalanche Hazard Prediction in East Kazakhstan Using Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms

Abstract

The study is devoted to the construction of an avalanche susceptibility map based on ensemble machine learning algorithms (random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, gradient boosting machines, AdaBoost, NGBoost) for the conditions of the East Kazakhstan region. To train these models, data were collected on avalanche path profiles, meteorological conditions, and historical avalanche events. The quality of the trained machine learning models was assessed using metrics such as accuracy, precision, true positive rate (recall), and F1-score. The obtained metrics indicated that the trained machine learning models achieved reasonably accurate forecasting performance (forecast accuracy from 67% to 73.8%). ROC curves were also constructed for each obtained model for evaluation. The resulting AUCs for these ROC curves showed acceptable levels (from 0.57 to 0.73), which also indicated that the presented models could be used to predict avalanche danger. In addition, for each machine learning model, we determined the importance of the indicators used to predict avalanche danger. Analysis of the importance of the indicators showed that the most significant indicators were meteorological data, namely temperature and snow cover level in avalanche paths. Among the indicators that characterized the avalanche paths’ profiles, the most important were the minimum and maximum slope elevations. Thus, within the framework of this study, a highly accurate model was built using geospatial and meteorological data that allows identifying potentially dangerous slope areas. These results can support territorial planning, the design of protective infrastructure, and the development of early warning systems to mitigate avalanche risks.