Impact-Oriented Climate Information Selection

Abstract

To support climate adaptation decision-making, a picture of current and upcoming climate and socio-economic conditions is required, including an overview of intervention scenarios and their impact. In order to be actionable, this picture needs to rely on credible, relevant, and legitimate information, which implies the use of tested models and concepts, tailored to the decision context, and with transparent and understandable assumptions on boundary conditions and process representation. These criteria are challenged when the complexity of the problem is large and stakes are high. For many conditions, unforeseeable features and events with potentially large implications affect the problem at hand and contribute to the uncertainty that is not easily quantified, let alone eliminated. We explore storyline development approaches that help in selecting relevant and credible pathways and events that enrich the understanding of the risks and options at stake. We explore two categories of storylines (climate scenario storylines and climate risk storylines) by discussing use cases in which these were developed.