Visit-to-Visit Variability in Lipid Levels and Risk of Incident Heart Failure in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes

Abstract

OBJECTIVE Limited data exist on the relation between long-term variability in blood lipid fractions and incident heart failure (HF) in the setting of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Among 9,443 participants with T2DM from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study, with lipid measurements available at six time points (baseline, 4, 8, 12, 24, and 36 months), we assessed variability in total cho lesterol (TC), LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides (TG) across visits, using coefficient of variation (CV), SD, and variability independent of the mean. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to estimate adjusted hazard ra tios (HRs) for incident HF. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 5.0 years, 345 participants developed HF. Partici pants in the highest quartile of CV of TC had a 68% higher relative risk of HF com pared with those in the lowest quartile (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.68, 95% CI 1.22–2.30). Similarly, those in the highest quartile of LDL cholesterol CV had a 76% higher relative risk (aHR 1.76, 95% CI 1.27–2.42) of HF, while those in the highest quartile of HDL cholesterol CV had a 53% higher risk (aHR 1.53, 95% CI 1.13–2.06). For TG CV, participants in the highest quartile had a 49% higher risk of HF compared with the lowest quartile (aHR 1.49, 95% CI 1.09–2.04). Similar patterns were observed for other variability metrics. CONCLUSIONS Increased variability in TC, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, or TG is indepen dently associated with a higher HF risk among individuals with T2DM.