Mapping cancer in Egypt: a model to predict future cancer situation using estimates from GLOBOCAN 2020

Abstract

Egypt has one of the largest populations in the Middle East and North Africa. With the help of mathematical models that project the situation over the next several years, this research seeks to understand the current epidemiologic condition of malignancies in Egypt. This may highlight the predicted burden of different cancers and guide policy makers in finding solutions to reduce such a burden. We used the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN)-2020 database of Egypt for our statistical analysis. Power law was used to find the causal relationship between the number of new cases and deaths. In order to determine the severity of the disease, cancer rank was examined and used to shed light on potential cancer-related characteristics. Equations comparing the state of various cancers were used to correlate the number of new cases and fatalities. When compared to the average global statistics, Egypt had alarmingly high death rates from breast and liver cancer. Additionally, the increase in newly reported cases was linked to an increase in mortality that happened more quickly than the global average rates. Liver cancer was first in newly reported cases and deaths, followed by breast and bladder cancers. Liver and pancreatic malignancies have the highest ranks as the most fatal cancers in Egypt. In Egypt, despite the efforts exerted by health authorities aiming at the early detection of different cancers, the country still occupies a high rank in cancer deaths compared to other countries, which is expected to continue for the coming few years.