Trends and projections in sexually transmitted infections in people aged 45 years and older in England: analysis of national surveillance data

Abstract

Aims: We describe the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV in people aged ⩾45 years in England and provide future projections about the burden of STIs in this age group. Methods: Analysis of national surveillance data in England from 2014 to 2019 for chlamydia, gonorrhoea, herpes, syphilis, anogenital warts and HIV was carried out. Time trends were assessed by the Poisson regression and reported using incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Two scenarios were modelled to predict the number of new STI diagnoses and associated costs in 2040. Results: In 2019, there were 37,692 new STI diagnoses in people ⩾45 years in England. Between 2014 and 2019, there was a significant increase in the rate of new STI diagnoses in men (IRR = 1.05, p =.05) and those aged 45–64 years (IRR = 1.04, p =.05). Absolute numbers of new STI diagnoses in men who have sex with men increased by 76% between 2014 and 2019 (IRR = 1.15, p