Application of a hybrid model based on multiple linear regression -principle component analysis (MLR-PCA) for electricity export forecasting

Abstract

: International electricity trade as a strategic commodity plays a prominent role in the foreign trade market of countries. Electricity export forecasting leads to better production planning, supply security, blackouts reduction, and obligations fulfillment. This paper aimed to provide a model for electricity export forecasting. In this regard, electricity consumption in different consumer sectors, gas consumption, population, GDP, and electricity prices have been entered into the multiple regression model as predictor variables. Although R 2 =.976 , F=66.110 , and SIG