Avoiding misinterpretation of climate change projections of fish catches

Abstract

It is common to assume that climate change impacts on future fish catches, relative to current levels of catch, are directly proportional to changes in the capacity of the ocean to produce fish. However, this would only be the case if production was optimized, which is not the case, and continues to do so in the future, which we do not know. It is more appropriate to see changes in the ocean’s productive capacity as providing an upper limit to future fish catches, but whether these catches are an increase or a decrease from present catch levels depends on management decisions now and in the future, rather than on the ocean’s productive capacity alone. Disregarding the role of management in driving current and future catches is not only incorrect but it also removes any encouragement for management agencies to improve performance. It is concluded that climate change provides one of the most powerful arguments to improve fisheries—and environmental—management, and thus fisheries sustainability globally.