The future of employment: Evaluating the impact of STI foresight exercises

Abstract

The present paper addresses the impact of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) Foresight and the resulting STI policy thereof on the critical issue of future industry studies, the demand for employment. The impact evaluation connecting STI Foresight to employment development proposed here brings together and integrates different scientific sectors such as the interdependence between employment and welfare systems; the role and importance of technological change for employment conditions; the prospects of emerging and future technologies impacting employment in future industry; the contribution of science, technology and innovation (STI) policies to promoting the generation and real application of new technologies. The paper follows the premise that STI Foresight, as well as Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), offer a robust basis for the elaboration and monitoring of STI policies with anticipatory intelligence. The core of the paper is dedicated to address the main question of how to identify and choose variables and indicators able to reflect vectors towards the future of employment. The selected vectors are referred to cross effects, trends, and time scales. As far the relationship of technology and employment is concerned, the paper examines cross effect impacts resulting from an input-output analysis, trends indicated in the FTA studies and time scaling of the technology lifecycle. These parameters are meant to constitute the basic elements for impact evaluation algorithms. In this connection, the paper proposes concepts, measurement techniques, and methods for the evaluation of foresight exercises influencing future changes on employment. Linking policy-making, Foresight, and specific future-looking themes, the paper offers building blocks for constructing standards for the evaluation of foresight exercises.