Simulation of Land Use Changes in Jiaodong Peninsular based on the Logistic-CA-Markov Model

Abstract

Based on Landsat TM/ETM+ images acquired in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 respectively, land use maps of Jiaodong Peninsular were created to analyze the characteristics of land use change. Then the Logistic-CA-Markov model was selected to simulate the spatial-temporal patterns of land use changes in 2010, 2015 and 2020 at 100 m spatial scale and five-year time interval. The results showed that: (1)During the period 2000-2015, areas of farmland decreased continuously, while urban area, rural settlement and independent industrial-mining increased continuously and rapidly; (2) Ten impact factors were chosen as the independent variables of Logistic regression analysis to establish eight logistic regression equations for eight land use types; (3) As the Logistic-CA-Markov model has a good performance in the simulation of land use maps in 2010 and 2015, it was further used to simulate land use change in 2020. (4)The simulation results showed that farmland, forest would decline during 2015 and 2020; Urban area would still increase.