Charging Station Development in the Context of Transport Electrification in Latvia: Systems Thinking Approach

Abstract

The EU policy targets require accelerating electrification of the transport sector, which brings both opportunities and challenges for national energy systems. This study aims to identify and prioritize key criteria for accelerating electric vehicle (EV) adoption beyond Innovators and Early Adopters stages of Technology Adoption Life Cycle in Latvian context. The study evaluates the relationship between EV adoption rates, charging infrastructure development, user behaviour, and grid capacity constraints in the form of causal loop diagrams (CLD), defined according to the Systems Thinking approach. The parameters of CLD and their feedbacks are defined based on literature review. The study proposes a set of criteria and their relationship in form of CLD, which further modelling of more effective electric vehicle infrastructure planning and anticipatory investments. As a result, research highlights how decisions in one area (e.g., public subsidies, cost of vehicles or charging infrastructure placement, etc.) can significantly influence others, leading to a nonlinear and delayed feedbacks in expected transport electrification rates. The findings of investigated case within CLDs are crucial to consider for large-scale projects concerning both transport sector and energy sector infrastructure. The Authors conclude that peak electricity demand, especially from fast-charging stations, poses a serious risk to grid stability if not properly managed. The findings of the study contribute to the development of a holistic and forward-looking framework for sustainable transport electrification in Latvia and other emerging EV markets.