A Study of the Factors Influencing Futures in the Agricultural Industry Based on Multiple Linear Regression Models—Take Corn Futures Prices as An Example

Abstract

With the development of the COVID-19 and the intensification of global warming, agricultural production is highly volatile and the global food crisis may further intensify. According to the recent studies in China and the United States, the research on the influencing factors of agricultural products is crucial. In this paper, when analyzing the influencing factors of agricultural products industry based on multiple linear regression model, the corn industry is taken as an example. The independent variables China CPI, U.S. CPI, China-U.S. exchange rate, S&P 500 index and export agricultural price index are selected, and the dependent variables are China corn futures price Y1 and U.S. corn futures price Y2, and the data all started from August 2021 to end in July 2022. Spss software is used to get the final corresponding results. A comparison of the factors influencing corn futures prices in China and the U.S. shows that corn futures prices fluctuate due to studied factors and that corn dominates agricultural futures in both countries. Moreover, as living standards improve, the demand for corn changes in different directions in these two countries, but both countries will experience less investment in agricultural futures.