Facilitating spatial consensus in complex future scenarios through Real-Time Spatial Delphi: A novel web-based open platform

Abstract

The Delphi technique is a commonly applied method for (among the various uses) achieving consensus from a group of knowledgeable experts. This approach is frequently employed to generate and prioritize ideas, identify potential solutions, and make decisions in various contexts through a series of iterative rounds. In the Futures Studies (FS) context, the Delphi method is regularly used in combination with the scenario method to explore different futures, implementing strategies in the present with the aim of averting dystopian outcomes and/or facilitating normative scenarios. Nevertheless, assuming that the convergence of opinions can also occur in spatial contexts, a shortcoming of the method is the deficiency of spatial references useful in the planning process. In this paper, we introduce the Real-Time Geo-Spatial Consensus System, a novel web-based open platform useful to develop Delphi-based Spatial Scenarios (DBSS), in an interactive and innovative interface. The platform adopts the Real-Time spatial Delphi technique to obtain a spatial convergence of opinions among experts to offer researchers, decision-makers, policymakers, and local authorities a new tool for complex spatial decisions. The primary innovations of the platform, including its architecture, statistical algorithms, tools, features, and outcomes, are demonstrated through a preliminary application focused on potential future climatic hazards in Dublin, Ireland.