Analisis Volatilitas Harga Sayuran di Jawa Timur

Abstract

The demand for vegetables in East Java which tends to increase not supported by the results of the vegetable production tends to decrease. These conditions resulted to the import of vegetables to overcome those needs. With the existence of free trade system, where the vegetable price movements in international markets that can not be predicted indirectly caused the price fluctuations of local vegetables also can be unpredictable so risk and uncertainty faced by farmers are getting higher. The type of vegetables that analyzed are: tomatoes, chilies and onions. The purpose of this research are: to find out how big the value of volatility from each vegetable are observed and to analize the influence of the vegetables price volatility to the vegetable production. The data used are vegetables production (Kg) and vegetables monthly price (Rp) for 15 years starting in January 1997 until December 2011. The methods used are standard deviation, Granger Test and ECM (Error Correction Model) Test. The result of research are: (1) Chili has obtained an average value of the greatest volatility 0,00031 persen while the lowest average value of volatility is tomatoes 0,00010 persen. Then the onion has the average value volatility 0,00016 persen, this results show how big the risk of loss and uncertainty for these vegetables. (2) Volatility of vegetable price has a negative effects on vegetable production. In regression test found that the value of coefficient of each vegetable is negative with results of tomato, chili and onion in a sequence is-0,17,-3,44 and-6,89. Next is Granger test that found the value of t-Statistic is less than the value of t-table (-1,65) with results of tomato, chili and onion in a sequence is-2,97,-3,04,-2,86. Then results of ECM test show that all commodities value is negative to the ECT (Error Correction Term) with results of tomato, chili and onion in a sequence is-0,60,-0,87,-2,84.