Predictable uncertainty about terminal operations in the sea

Abstract

Tis paper considers a problem of planning short term operations in a bulk terminal faced by port management when making tactical decisions. Ship loading and discharging, cargo stocking, the maintenance and service of facility equipment are regular operations of a bulk terminal which is a subsystem of a sea port the conduct of which is subject to difficult-to-predict or unforeseen influences. Te problem that port management encounters in day to day operations looks into making the best possible plan with the scheduled duration of operations/states and transition instants, considering various internal and external factors infuencing terminal performance. A state and transition model is used for deriving effective solutions to obtaining the state order and state transition time of a bulk terminal with an objective of minimizing operational costs. Te behaviour of the terminal is tested applying the stochastic and deterministic method.