Impactos macroeconômicos do choque fiscal de 2015: A regularização de despesas públicas não contabilizadas

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impacts of the recognition of previously unreported fiscal liabilities throughout 2015 in Brazil. This is done within a DSGE model with a detailed public sector developed and calibrated for the Brazilian economy. The gradual recognition of these fiscal liabilities is interpreted as a series of "news shocks", which may have affected agents' decisions and economic performance. Simulation results suggest that these shocks-and the fiscal adjustment measures taken to offset their effects-may have caused significant output losses and inflationary pressures, and that delaying or downsizing the required fiscal adjustment in the short run would have led to even larger costs.