Modelling climate change impacts on the seasonality of water resources in the upper Ca river watershed in Southeast Asia

Abstract

The impact of climate change on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in mainland Southeast Asia was assessed using downscaled global climate models coupled with the SWAT model. The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years. The area could warm as much as 3.4°C in the 2090s, with an increase of annual evapotranspiration of up to 23% in the same period. We found an increase in the seasonality of precipitation (both an increase in the wet season and a decrease in the dry season). The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090s. As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ±25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090s. This is expected to exacerbate the problem of seasonally uneven distribution of water resources: a large volume of water in the wet season and a scarcity of water in the dry season, a pattern that indicates the possibility of more frequent floods in the wet season and droughts in the dry season.