Tourism-led Growth Revisited for Spain: Causality, Business Cycles and Structural Breaks

Abstract

This paper is aimed to test the causality relationship between the cycles of tourism and economic development for the case of Spain using quarterly time-series data on gross domestic product, the number of nights spent in Spanish tourist accommodations and real exchange rates from 1980 to 2013. A distinction between nights spent by foreign and national tourists is also made. Although no evidence of causality is found on preliminary results, structural breaks affecting the relationships between the variables are detected. Causality from economic growth towards tourist activity is found until 1985. Results also confirm bidirectional causality from 2000 onwards.