Trends of High and Low Values of Annual and Seasonal Precipitation in Turkey

Abstract

The exploration of precipitation data trends using innovative analysis methods is anticipated to offer significant contributions to sustainability across various domains, including water resources management, agricultural planning, climate change understanding, environmental protection, risk assessment, and preparedness. This study employs an improved visualization of the innovative trend analysis (IV-ITA) method for detecting annual and seasonal trends in precipitation variables across 194 stations in Turkey over the period 1969–2020. The outcomes derived from the IV-ITA method were further juxtaposed with the results obtained from the classical Mann–Kendall (MK) test. Using the MK test, statistically significant increasing trends were detected in the annual pattern along the northern coasts of Turkey. Based on the results obtained from the IV-ITA, substantial decreasing trends were identified in the basins within the Southeastern Anatolia Region of Turkey. Conversely, an increasing trend was observed in the basins situated in the northwest. It was also established that an increasing trend was observed throughout Turkey, except for some stations in the low-data group. The most significant increasing trend was noted in the basins along the southern coastline, characterized by the prevalence of the Mediterranean climate. In the high-data group, an increase of up to 50% was noted along the southwest coast. Upon comparing the outcomes derived from the IV-ITA method with those obtained using the MK test, it becomes apparent that the IV-ITA yields significantly more detailed results than the MK test. Additionally, applying the IV-ITA method in climate-sensitive regions and basins is envisioned to enhance the accuracy of assessments, foster a sustainable environment, and improve the effective management of water resources.