Generation Expansion Planning Based on Local Renewable Energy Resources: A Case Study of the Isolated Ambon-Seram Power System

Abstract

Energy sustainability has become one of the main issues in power system planning in the Indonesian archipelago system, which has many small, isolated systems. For that purpose, green and sustainable generation expansion planning (GEP) procedures based on local energy resources is required. GEP is a necessary procedure for fulfilling electricity demand, which determines the generating units to be installed within a specified time horizon with minimal total costs as the objective function. This study uses GEP considering the interconnection option among the existing small scattered generation systems in Maluku: the isolated Ambon, Seram, Haruku, and Saparua systems. With interconnection, the utilization of local renewable energy sources would be increased, especially biomass, which has abundant potential in these areas. The GEP was simulated in the PLEXOS environment using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). For comparison purposes, there were interconnection and isolated system scenarios. The results showed that the interconnection system would have a high share of a renewable energy source (RES) of up to 54% in 2050, most of which is biomass as the primary local energy source. The interconnection system scenario met the LOLP criteria and had a lower reserve margin and total costs than the isolated scenario, with USD 773.7 million.