Scenario analysis of Taiwan's nuclear phase-out strategy with time series forecasting

Abstract

Electricity generation in Taiwan is mainly from thermal, nuclear, and renewable sources. With nearly four decades of monthly data (from January 1982 to January 2022) used in analytics, the forecasting results reveal the patterns of electricity generation in Taiwan. Exponential smoothing and Holt–Winters seasonal models are used for time-series forecasting, and scenario analysis is applied to simulate possible paths for nuclear phase-out in Taiwan by 2025. Taking the fact of Taiwan's lack of energy independence into account, transition for nuclear phase-out may require a substantial leap to meet the demand. The feasibility of electricity generation using current thermal power capacity and renewable energy remain challenging.