Integrating adaptation expertise into regional climate data analyses through tailored climate parameters

Abstract

Climate change affects many fields of action, ranging from city planning and forestry to agriculture and the tourism industry, for which climate adaptation is needed. Therefore, the main goal of the current study is to introduce a concept of how to integrate adaptation expertise into regional climate data analyses using so-called climate parameters. Latter describes a meteorological condition or threshold relevant to regional adaptation measures. To reach this goal, several steps were performed, starting with a survey and expert interviews on experiences of the climate influence on regional decision-making focusing on the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg in south-west Germany. After quantifying these experiences in terms of tailored climate parameters, they were analyzed using the observation datasets HYRAS and E-OBS as well as an ensemble of regional climate simulations for south-west Germany for a reference period (1971–2000) and the near future (2021–2050). Then, the relevance of the tailored climate parameters was described by a so-called “sensitivity assessment”. According to this assessment, the necessity for adaptation measures in a changing climate was identified for different fields of action. In the end, we show that a co-produced coupling of the expertise of climate scientists and decision-makers leads to a better understanding of the regional challenges of climate change and impacts. The results of the study show the high potential of tailored climate parameters through integrating practical knowledge into climate simulation analyses.