Capital flows and geographically uneven economic dynamics: A monetary perspective

Abstract

This paper provides a monetary perspective on capital flows and their effects on geographically uneven economic dynamics. Contributing to debates on global imbalances and the international dimension of financialisation, the paper applies heterodox theories of endogenous money creation, asset pricing, and balance sheet fragility to capital flows across regions. Three theoretical claims are made and illustrated through coherent balance-sheet accounting and empirical examples. First, trade imbalances usually are financed endogenously by net inflows that need not originate from surplus regions. Second, bank inflows are not a precondition for local credit creation, but certain types of gross financial flows can contribute to destabilising financial booms through exchange rate appreciation and asset price inflation. Third, sudden stops in capital flows can be entirely unrelated to current account deficits but may trigger financial instability, resulting in negative gross flows rather than increased outflows. For debates in economic geography and heterodox economics, the arguments imply that the focus on surplus countries as originators of destabilising flows can be misleading and that global financial centres are likely to be more important. More attention is needed to gross portfolio and FDI flows into asset markets rather than bank flows and net flows.