An evaluation of the reliability of the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting wind data: a case study of Burundi

Abstract

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is an exceptional software for mesoscale climate modeling. It is extensively used to simulate key meteorological variables, including temperature, rainfall, and wind. This study thoroughly examined the effectiveness of the WRF model in generating precise wind data for assessing the potential of wind power in Burundi. A meticulous evaluation of various combinations of model physics parameterization schemes was conducted to ensure accuracy. By comparing the simulated data with measurements from four meteorological stations and utilizing statistical metrics such as root-mean-square error (RMSE) and bias, the accuracy of the WRF model was determined.  The findings of the study uncovered that utilizing WRF Single-Moment 3-Class (WSM3) for microphysics, Grell-Devenyi ensemble for cumulus physics, and Yonsei University for planetary boundary layer yields highly accurate wind data results for Burundi. Furthermore, the WRF model was utilized to create detailed seasonal and annual mean wind maps with a high resolution. These maps demonstrated that the western part of Burundi experiences higher wind speeds (ranging from 4 to 9.7 m/s) during the dry seasons revealing the potential for wind energy harvesting in the different areas of Burundi.