The Impact of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Policy on Green Total Factor Productivity – Influence Analysis Based on Super-EBM and Multiple Mediators

Abstract

Can China's carbon trading policy promote regional green total factor productivity? What are the specific influencing processes and mechanisms between the two? In this paper, we construct an indicator framework for China's green total factor productivity from the perspective of green development, which comprehensively considers various inputs and outputs. This paper uses a more scientific Super-EBM model considering the mixed distance to accurately measure the regional green total factor productivity in China. The static and dynamic effects and multiple mediating effects of carbon trading policy on green total factor productivity were studied by using DID model combined with stepwise regression method. The robustness of the results was tested by parallel trend test and placebo test. The mediating effects of total energy consumption, energy consumption structure, technological innovation and the moderating effects of financial development level and intellectual property protection degree are studied. The results show that carbon trading policy significantly improves China's regional green total factor productivity. The effect of carbon trading policy on green total factor productivity in pilot areas increased to decreased; Total energy consumption and energy consumption structure have a partial intermediary effect on the relationship between carbon emission trading policy and regional green total factor productivity in China, while technological innovation has a masking effect. Regional financial development level and intellectual property protection intensity play a moderating role in the relationship between carbon emission trading policy and regional total factor productivity. Based on the above conclusions, some suggestions are put forward for the improvement of China's carbon trading policy system.