Exploratory analysis of machine learning methods in predicting subsurface temperature and geothermal gradient of Northeastern United States

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Abstract

Geothermal scientists have used bottom-hole temperature data from extensive oil and gas well datasets to generate heat flow and temperature-at-depth maps to locate potential geothermally active regions. Considering that there are some uncertainties and simplifying assumptions associated with the current state of physics-based models, in this study, the applicability of several machine learning models is evaluated for predicting temperature-at-depth and geothermal gradient parameters. Through our exploratory analysis, it is found that XGBoost and Random Forest result in the highest accuracy for subsurface temperature prediction. Furthermore, we apply our model to regions around the sites to provide 2D continuous temperature maps at three different depths using XGBoost model, which can be used to locate prospective geothermally active regions. We also validate the proposed XGBoost and DNN models using an extra dataset containing measured temperature data along the depth for 58 wells in the state of West Virginia. Accuracy measures show that machine learning models are highly comparable to the physics-based model and can even outperform the thermal conductivity model. Also, a geothermal gradient map is derived for the whole region by fitting linear regression to the XGBoost-predicted temperatures along the depth. Finally, through our analysis, the most favorable geological locations are suggested for potential future geothermal developments.

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Shahdi, A., Lee, S., Karpatne, A., & Nojabaei, B. (2021). Exploratory analysis of machine learning methods in predicting subsurface temperature and geothermal gradient of Northeastern United States. Geothermal Energy, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40517-021-00200-4

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