Three-dimensional thermal sensitivity analysis of cooling of a magma chamber in the Los Azufres geothermal field, Michoacán, Mexico

Abstract

Background: We present three-dimensional simulation of cooling of 63 models of a magma chamber in the Los Azufres geothermal field by varying the top of the chamber depth between 5 and 9 km (centroid from about 7 to 13 km) and its volume between 300 and 600 km3. Methods: Nineteen new best-fit cubic equations are presented to represent the temperature field in the geothermal reservoir in terms of the chamber centroid depth, its volume, or both. Results: These equations clearly show that the thermal regime is much more sensitive to chamber depth than to its volume. These simulation results imply that, for a better estimation of the energy budget of a volcanic area, the depth parameter should be better constrained than the chamber volume. Conclusion: Geoscientists are, therefore, encouraged to obtain more reliable estimates of magma chamber depths for active volcanoes and potential geothermal areas. Furthermore, the smallest discretization time and mesh size should be used for solving the heat flow equations in three-dimensions.