Research on Spatial and Temporal Divergence and Influencing Factors of the Coal Industry Transformation and Development Under Energy Security and Dual-Carbon Target

Abstract

To achieve the “dual-carbon” target and ensure energy security, there is an urgent need to promote the transformation of the energy system, of which the coal industry is the main battlefield. In order to study the spatial and temporal characteristics and influencing factors of the coal industry transformation and development (CITD), this article establishes an evaluation index system for the transformation and development of the coal industry, including 17 indicators in six dimensions. The projection pursuit (PP) model, which relies on the Real Coded Accelerating Genetic Algorithm (RAGA), is applied to assess the CITD index in 23 Chinese provinces between 2011 and 2021. The findings indicate that (1) the CITD index in China as a whole shows an upward trend, and the regional differences are more obvious, in the following order: eastern, central, and western. (2) There is striking spatial autocorrelation in the CITD in China, and the CITD in this region has a striking spatial spillover effect on the neighboring regions. (3) Human capital, foreign direct investment level, and employment density are positively correlated with CITD, while industrial development level and government intervention extent are negatively correlated with it. Policymakers should incorporate the findings of the study and formulate targeted policies to provide ideas for fueling the transformational development of the coal industry.