Contributions of Various Temporal Components of Large-Scale Parameters in Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the North Indian Ocean

Abstract

This work compares the contributions of synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual components of large-scale parameters to tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) from April to December from 1979 to 2020. A composite analysis is employed with respect to TC genesis time and location. It is shown that most TCs occur when the total sea surface temperature (SST) is between 28 and 30 °C and SST anomalies in three time ranges are small (with the magnitude less than 0.2 °C). The TCs form mostly when the anomalies of vertical zonal wind shear are between −6 and 6 m s−1 and total vertical zonal wind shear falls within −12 and −3 m s−1, with the synoptic component being a positive contributor. The intraseasonal component of vorticity and convergence in the low level, vertical motion and specific humidity in the middle level, and convection contributes dominantly to the TC genesis. Synoptic-scale tropical disturbances obtain barotropic kinetic energy from the climatological mean and intraseasonal flows, with the former dominant in the southeastern sector, and the latter dominant in the northwestern sector. The contributions of the three temporal components of environmental factors are compared for TC genesis between the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BOB) and between the early season (April through June) and late season (September through December). The relative contributions of the three temporal components of factors are also compared for the TC formation among the NIO, northern tropical Atlantic Ocean (NTA), Northwestern Pacific (WNP), and Northeastern Pacific (ENP).