Caspian Red Deer Population Dynamics Under Changing Climate Conditions in Central Alborz: Two Decades of Conservation En Route to Restoration

Abstract

Climate change and habitat loss are among the most significant threats to global biodiversity, profoundly altering species distributions, reproductive success, and the number of individuals. This study focuses on the Caspian red deer (Cervus elaphus maral) within the Golestank core zone of the Central Alborz Protected Area (CAPA), investigating how climatic variables and conservation interventions have influenced their numbers over the past two decades. By integrating comprehensive field surveys, demographic assessments, and weather data from regional weather stations, we identified a consistent annual growth rate of 2.2%. This positive trend is attributed to enhanced calf survival and a stable male-to-female ratio, reflecting the population's resilience under conservation management. Warmer winter temperatures were found to positively influence population numbers, whereas increased spring snowfall exerted a detrimental effect. These findings highlight the importance of targeted habitat conservation efforts to buffer the impacts of climate change and support long-term population sustainability.