Multifactor models for studying the EU countries' international trade

Abstract

Successful decision-making in the field of international trade is a background for further development of international trade in a balance between the economic interests of its participants. It is based on use of the latest tools for making such decisions, in particular, multifactor methods for economic processes analysis. The purpose of this study is to develop multifactor models of the international trade study by using factor, cluster and discriminant analyses to determine the quality of the model results depending on the method used. In the process of study, the following general scientific and special methods were used: system analysis to determine the directions of the international trade study; cluster analysis, factor and discriminant analysys for the development of multifactor models of the international trade study. Based on the results of factor analysis, 13 indicators were grouped according to their influence. With the help of cluster modelling, the EU countries were grouped according to quantitative indicators such as GDP, final consumption expenditure and gross capital formation. According to discriminant analysis, significance of the selected factors was interpreted. Consequently, such factors as exports and imports of goods and services, the population size and emigration of population have direct significant impact on the countries' economic development, namely on GDP, final consumption expenditure and gross capital formation. Theoretical and methodological provisions are brought to the level of specific and practical proposals to form the basis of studying indicators of international trade and develop specific models for studying international trade by using multifactor modelling alternative methods.