Elevated atmospheric CO2 drove an increase in tropical cyclone intensity during the early Toarcian hyperthermal

Abstract

The occurrence of sedimentary storm deposits around the Tethys Ocean during the early Toarcian hyperthermal (~183 Ma) suggests that intensified tropical cyclone (TC) activity occurred in response to CO2 rise and marked warming. However, this hypothesized linkage between extreme warmth and storm activity remains untested, and the spatial pattern of any changes in TCs is unclear. Here, model results show that there were two potential storm genesis centers over Tethys during the early Toarcian hyperthermal located around the northwestern and southeastern Tethys. The empirically determined doubling of CO2 concentration that accompanied the early Toarcian hyperthermal (~500 to ~1,000 ppmv) leads to increased probability of stronger storms over Tethys, in tandem with more favorable conditions for coastal erosion. These results match well with the geological occurrence of storm deposits during the early Toarcian hyperthermal and confirm that increased TC intensity would have accompanied global warming.